ANALISIS TREND PRODUKSI DAN HARGA TEMBAKAU DI BOJONEGORO (Analysis of Tobacco Production and Prices Trends in Bojonegoro)

Abstract

The Trend Analysis is a technique used to do a forecast in the future. In addition, this trend is used to determine the trend of the data going up or down. Tobacco is a superior commodity in the plantation sector which is very important for the Indonesian economy. Products traded include tobacco leaves and cigarettes, each of which has significant economic value. Every region in Indonesia has tobacco products with different distinctive flavors, depending on local soil and climate conditions. This makes Indonesian tobacco have its own charm in local and international markets. One of the areas that become tobacco production in Indonesia is Bojonegoro Regency. The ability to forecast trend models using MAPE values. This research aims to determine the trend in tobacco production and price data in Bojonegoro Regency for the period 2014 - 2023, as well as forecasting from the trend analysis model. Tobacco production data has an uptrend pattern, while tobacco price data has a fluctuating pattern. Based on the results of the trend analysis, it can be known that tobacco production and prices in Bojonegoro Regency tend to increase every year as in the forecast results of the trend model. The forecasting ability of tobacco production and prices in the future is quite good based on MAPE values of 17.6% and 18.9%.

Keywords: Trend Analysis, Production, Price, Tobacco, Forecasting