Optimization of Robusta Ground Coffee Raw Material Inventory Using the MRP Method with Monte Carlo Simulation (Case Study of CV Kopi Citarasa Persada)
Optimasi Persediaan Bahan Baku Kopi Bubuk Robusta Menggunakan Metode MRP dengan Simulasi Monte Carlo (Studi Kasus CV Kopi Citarasa Persada)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.30742/jisa26120265583Keywords:
forecasting, inventory, lot-sizing, MRP, robusta ground coffeeAbstract
The production process is a key activity in the agro-industry that determines the company's success in meeting market demand efficiently. CV Kopi Citarasa Persada is a robusta ground coffee processing company that faces problems in controlling raw material inventory in the form of dried coffee beans, labels, and stand-up pouches which impacts high inventory costs and the risk of raw material shortages. This study aims to project the demand for robusta ground coffee in 2026 and plan raw material inventory with minimal inventory costs. The method used is Monte Carlo simulation forecasting and lot sizing techniques in MRP, namely Lot For Lot (LFL) and Fixed Period Requirement (FPR). The results show that the projected demand for robusta ground coffee in 2026 is 1,821 kg with Monte Carlo simulation validation resulting in a MAPE of 16.15%, including the good category. The results of MRP for 48 weekly periods and produce raw material requirements in the form of 3,642 kg of dried coffee beans, 1,821 pcs labels, and 1,821 pcs stand-up pouches . The LFL technique resulted in 48 ordering frequencies with a total inventory cost of Rp764,050 for dried coffee beans and Rp815,752 for labels and stand-up pouches . Meanwhile, the FPR technique resulted in 10 ordering frequencies with a total inventory cost of Rp278,833 for dried coffee beans and Rp289,532 for labels and stand-up pouches . The FPR technique is the best alternative method because it is able to minimize total inventory costs.
References
Amalia, E. L., Yunhasnawa, Y., & Rahmatanti, A. R. (2022). Sistem Prediksi Penjualan Frozen Food dengan Metode Monte Carlo (Studi Kasus: Supermama Frozen Food). Jurnal Buana Informatika, 13(2), 136–145. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.24002/jbi.v13i02.6496
Amaral, N. P. A., & Pratiwi, L. P. K. (2024). Buku Ajar Agroindustri. PT Sonpedia Publishing Indonesia.
Ambarwati, R., & Supardi. (2021). Manajemen Operasional dan Implementasi dalam Industri. Pustaka Rumah.
Amorim, F. R. De, Carla, C., Afonso, P., Sales, M., & Tobias, G. (2024). Forecasting Cost Risks of Corn and Soybean Crops through Monte Carlo Simulation. Applied Sciences, 14(17), 1–21. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.3390/app14178030
Annisa, P. D., Soleh, M., & Yul, F. A. (2024). Analisa Keputusan. Widina Media Utama.
Badan Pusat Statistik Kabupaten Pasuruan. (2025). Kabupaten Pasuruan dalam Angka 2025. Pasuruan: Badan Pusat Statistik Kabupaten Pasuruan.
Bayard, S., Grimaud, F., & Delorme, X. (2024). Demand Driven Material Requirement Planning: Core Concepts and Analysis of its Behavior on A Case Study. IFAC-PapersOnLine, 58(19), 1054–1059. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ifacol.2024.09.134
Fahrudin. (2023). Manajemen Operasional: Teori dan Praktik. Wawasan Ilmu.
Heizer, J., & Render, B. (2001). Manajemen Operasi. Prentice Hall.
Hendajani, F., Wardhani, I. P., Widayati, S., & Soegijanto. (2022). Data Analisis Permintaan Barang dengan Metode Peramalan. EKOMABIS: Jurnal Ekonomi Manajemen Bisnis, 3(2), 169–180. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.37366/ekomabis.v3i02.254
Iskandar, F., Al Rasyid, H., & Yulandari, P. (2022). Analisis Pengendalian Persediaan Bahan Baku Kopi (Studi Kasus : Kopi Rigis). Jurnal Agroindustri Berkelanjutan, 2(1), 206–216. https://doi.org/10.23960/jab.v2i1.7231
Kania, A., Afsar, B., Miettinen, K., & Sipilä, J. (2024). DESMILS : a decision support approach for multi-item lot sizing using interactive multiobjective optimization. Journal of Intelligent Manufacturing, 35(3), 1373–1387. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10845-023-02112-5
Koutsandreas, D., Spiliotis, E., & Petropoulos, F. (2021). On the selection of forecasting accuracy measures. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 1–18. https://doi.org/10.1080/01605682.2021.1892464
Kusmindari, D., Alfian, A., & Hardini, S. (2019). Production Planning and Inventory Control. Deepublish.
Ni’maturrakhmat, V. N., Puspaningtyas, S. D., & Nurhayati, D. (2025). Analisis Nilai Tambah Produk Olahan Kopi Robusta (Studi Kasus: Agroindustri Kopi Wijaya, Jember). Jurnal Teknologi Dan Manajemen Industri Terapan, 4(4), 1440–1447. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.55826/73sb2s66
Nirmal, A., Ahmad, & Kristina, J. (2022). PENGENDALIAN PERSEDIAAN BAHAN BAKU CABAI BUBUK UNTUK MENGELIMINASI STOCKOUT DENGAN SIMULASI MONTE CARLO. Jurnal Mitra Teknik Industri, 1(3), 329–339. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.24912/jmti.v1i3.23513
Nugroho, B. Y., Saragih, F. D., & EKO, U. (2024). Metode Kuantitatif Pendekatan Pengambilan Keputusan untuk Ilmu Sosial dan Bisnis. Salemba Humanika.
Pertiwi, M. G. P., Nofrida, R., & Anggraini, I. M. D. (2024). Estimation of Shelf Life of Robusta Coffee Bean Using Critical Moisture Content Approach. Jurnal Ilmu Dan Teknologio, 10(1), 20–29. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.29303/profood.v10i1.362
Prasetyo, D., & Widajanti, E. (2025). Implementasi Metode Material Requirement Planning Sebagai Setrategi Pengendalian Persediaan Bahan Baku Pada Pabrik Tahu Mas Ipan di Sragen. Journal of Artifical Intelligence Adn Digital Business, 4(3), 4063–4073. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.31004/riggs.v4i3.2595
Przysucha, B., Bednarczuk, P., Martyniuk, W., Golec, E., Jasieński, M., & Pliszczuk, D. (2024). Monte Carlo Simulation as a Demand Forecasting Tool. European Research Studies Journal, XXVII(2), 103–113. https://doi.org/10.35808/ersj/3391
Rochmah, S. (2022). Buku Ajar Manajemen Operasi 1. Penerbit NEM.
Suradi. (2023). Sistem Produksi. Tohar Media.
Suryatama, M., & Mindhayani, I. (2026). Optimasi Biaya Persediaan Bahan Baku Melalui Perbandingan Economic Order Quantity dan Metode Continuous Review System. Jurnal Inovasi Dan Kreativitas, 6(1), 31–44. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.30656/jika.v6i1.11912
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Fitria Ayu Novitasari, Sri Tjondro Winarno, Dita Atasa

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
- The author retains copyright and grants the journal the right of first publication with the work being simultaneously licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which allows others to share the work with acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors may make additional separate contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the published journal version of the work (for example, posting it to an institutional repository or publishing it in a book), with acknowledgment of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (for example, in institutional repositories or on their websites) before and during the submission process, as it can result in a productive exchange, as well as earlier and larger citations of published work (See The Influence Open Access).


